Miami Redhawks Approach NCHC Playoffs

OXFORD – A lot is happening inside the NCHC league office in Colorado Springs.

Going into the last weekend of the regular season, we only know of two teams whose seed has been clinched for the NCHC league playoffs in a couple of weeks. Those teams are Colorado College and Western Michigan, who will finish last and second to last in the regular season standings this year.

Following a sweep at home of Colorado College this weekend, the Miami RedHawks find themselves tied for fourth in the league standings with Minnesota Duluth. Both teams have 28 points. However, because Duluth has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami, the Bulldogs are in fourth, and the RedHawks sit in fifth.

In order to host a first round playoff series the weekend of March 11, a team must finish 4th or higher in the NCHC standings. This is because the #1 seed hosts the #8 seed, the #2 seed hosts the #7 seed, #3 plays at home against #6, and #4 hosts #5.

And, the scheduling gods were good to the RedHawks, because Miami controls their own destiny. The Red and White will pay a visit to Duluth this weekend for a two game set against the Bulldogs of Minnesota-Duluth, who swept the #3 team in the country, St. Cloud State, on the road last weekend.

So? What are the scenarios for what has to happen for Miami to get a certain seed? Look below.

For 4th place: Miami must earn at least 4 points in the league standings this weekend ( a win and a tie past the 5v5 overtime that immediately follows regulation play) against Duluth in order to win the points battle against the Bulldogs, and to lock up the #4 seed in the standings.

For 5th Place: Minnesota Duluth must only need 3 points this weekend ( just a win) , in order to win the tiebreaker over Miami, regardless if those points are clinched Friday or Saturday. So, if Miami loses one game this weekend, they will automatically be traveling for the playoffs. The question is where?

For 6th place: (even though it’s not even possible) This is just a fun fact, but for those who don’t know if Miami loses both games to Duluth, and if Omaha, who sits in sixth place six points behind the RedHawks (two wins in the standings) sweeps the Pioneers of Denver on the road, Omaha would tie Miami in the standings. However, Miami owns the head to head tiebreaker over Omaha, so the RedHawks can only be the fifth place seed at the lowest.

National Implications

Because the NCAA tournament is now just 4 weeks away with selection Sunday 3 weeks away, Miami must closely look at their pairwise placement this weekend.

The pairwise rankings are objective mathematical standings used to determine placement and bids for the NCAA tournament.

Currently, Miami sits at 18th place in the pairwise. Although there is no rule or set number for automatic bids, bracketologists say that you must be at 12th place or above in order to get in without having to win you conference (just like the NCAA basketball tourney, if you win your conference tournament, you automatically get into the NCAA tournament, which, in hockey, is a tournament of 16 teams).

With Miami at 18th, a couple wins against Minnesota Duluth may propel the RedHawks inside 16th in the rankings, but maybe not high enough to receive an at-large bid.

Also, there is bigger incentive for the RedHawks to make the tournament this year because they are hosting a first and second round regional at US Bank Arena in Cincinnati at the end of March. Miami will have to go into this region per NCAA rule, no matter what seed they are, if they get into the tournament.

The Game Plan

At this point, for the best chance to getting into the NCAA tournament and winning the NCHC, the RedHawks must host a first round league playoff series. This would give them the best chance at reaching Minneapolis for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff (the last four teams left in the league), and would also give them a chance at winning the league tournament at the Target Center (something they did last year), and moving into Cincinnati for the regional.

Which is why this weekend is as critical as ever for the RedHawks, because the two games ahead of them in Duluth, Minnesota have both major league and national implications.